Friday, 16 November, 2018

Resale market to see lower sales, higher inventories around Metro Vancouver: CMHC

Resale market to see lower sales, higher inventories around Metro Vancouver: CMHC Glut of unsold units to slow housing starts in Calgary through 2020, CMHC predicts
Priscilla Morrison | 08 November, 2018, 19:10

Housing starts will remain flat in Calgary for the next two years because of a high level of available homes on the market, according to a report by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).

CMHC expects MLS resales to drop from 8,464 units in 2017 to 6,500-7,500 sales this year. This is in part due to higher mortgage rates, slower growth within the population and economy, and changes to housing policies pushing MLS Sales down 21 per cent in the first half of 2018, compared to the same time previous year.

In its 2018 housing market outlook released Tuesday, the national housing agency projects housing starts and sales are both expected to decline in 2019 and 2020.

Slower sales and higher inventory will cause average home prices across B.C.to "hold steady" over the next two years, said the federal housing agency. Buyers' market conditions are expected to slowly subside and this will help stabilize housing prices in 2019. "Meanwhile, average rents for goal built apartments are anticipated to continue to see increases stronger than inflation in both 2019 and 2020".

The average MLS sale price in Alberta was $398,228.

"MLS sales in Alberta are projected to be lower in 2018 compared to 2017".

More news: Red Dead Redemption 2 has sold over 17 million copies worldwide

The CMHC outlook says the average rent in Victoria is well below what new renters are paying and as older units turnover, rents will increase to reflect new price levels. For 2019, sales are expected to rise slightly, coming in between 478,400 and 497,400 units.

"Through nine months of 2018, the average MLS price in Alberta was approximately $390,000, down 2.6 per cent from the same period in 2017". "As demand moves to lower levels relative to new supply, market conditions are expected to ease".

The CMHC said in its report, "Shifting market conditions across BC's large urban centres is resulting in movement back towards balanced or even buyers' market conditions in some cases, which is beginning to flatten price growth or, in some areas [such as Metro Vancouver], result in price declines". But as builders continue to work on new high-rises vacancy rates might also rise. However, outflows from rental tenure to homeownership will continue to create vacancies.

The October vacancy rate hit 10.3 per cent in 2016. "As such, the average rent will increase, in part, as the lower end of the price distribution catches up to current market prices".

Mario Toneguzzi is a veteran Calgary-based journalist who worked for 35 years for the Calgary Herald, including 12 years as a senior business writer.

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