Friday, 16 November, 2018

America Now 'Pumping More Oil' than Saudi Arabia, Russia — USA UNLEASHED

Embedded Image Opec eyes yet another u-turn as oil slump stirs talk of new cuts
Priscilla Morrison | 09 November, 2018, 05:26

Forecasts of a 2019 supply surplus and slowing demand have also dented the market.

Earlier today, the data from China, who is allowed to continue to import oil from Iran, revealed that crude oil imports in October rose to a record high of 9.61 million barrels per day to provide a short-term boost to crude oil prices.

Earlier this week, Brent dropped to its lowest since mid-August.

Waivers granted to the sanctions intensify the market's perception that sanctions may not limit crude supply as much as initially expected.

"They will absolutely want to at some point next year try to arrange a reduction in production", said Ed Morse, head of commodities at Citigroup Inc. -China trade war will damp fuel demand as supply grows from multiple directions.

The meeting this weekend of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee, a six-nation body representing the broader 25-country coalition, is intended as just an interim review before all ministers discuss policy next month in Vienna. Still, it could give a significant indication of what's to come. Although Washington granted some of Iran's customers temporary waivers that let them keep buying, the Trump administration has said repeatedly it intends to entirely choke off the country's energy revenues.

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With WTI Crude now at $61, and asked if US oil prices could slide to $50, Cramer said on CNBC's "Squawk on the Street" "I could make a case for the $40s here". The EIA expects output to break through 12 million bpd by mid-2019, largely thanks to a surge in shale oil production.

Then there are political considerations.

A group of producers around the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) as well as Russian Federation decided last June to relax output curbs in place since 2017, after pressure from US President Donald Trump to reduce oil prices and make up for supply losses from Iran.

"Any serious discussion will be toward the December meeting", the third source said. While there has been talk in the market that the group should consider renewed output cuts, Russian Federation now isn't ready for such a decision, the official said. Over the past few months, OPEC has ratcheted up production amid calls from U.S. President Donald Trump to offset declines in Iranian shipments.

One member of the cartel, which has been cutting production involuntarily due to USA sanctions, appeared to welcome the prospect of other nations doing the same.

"OPEC and Russian Federation may use cuts to support $70 per barrel", said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. Opec's own projections show that next year the world will need about 1 million barrels a day less than the 31.8 million its 15 members pumped in September.

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