Thursday, 16 August, 2018

Aussie Rises after RBA Leaves Rates Unchanged

GBP to AUD daily Reserve Bank governor says Australia's high immigration levels boosted economy
Priscilla Morrison | 10 August, 2018, 11:15

How positive can the data - that only ever describes the past - actually become to be able to cover up the [larger] risks the United Kingdom economy is facing?'AUD Benefits from Central Bank Speculation and Risk-Sentiment Investors have found risky commodity-correlated currencies like the Australian Dollar more appealing since the end of last week, due to rising commodity prices and stronger market performance in China.

Overall housing finance volumes dropped by 4.8 per cent in NSW, 0.7 per cent in Victoria and 5 per cent in Queensland and South Australia.

The Australian Dollar was generally unresponsive to the event, with traders turning to today's speech by Governor Philip Lowe for deeper policy analysis.

Australian Dollar to US Dollar (AUD/USD) Exchange Rate Forecast: AUD/USD Losses ahead on US Optimism Data? Keep in mind that this was the first month in which the USA imposed tariffs on China imports. "But with a complex set of risks in each country, there's likely to be something for everyone", ANZ Bank New Zealand chief economist Sharon Zollner and senior macro strategist Philip Borkin said in a note. These higher money-market rates have not fed through into higher interest rates on retail deposits. Weston said the kiwi dipped because the "market expected a slightly more downbeat assessment but that didn't happen". "Gross domestic product growth is expected to average a bit above 3% in 2018 and 2019".

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"Not surprisingly, the direction of global trade policy continues to be a key source of uncertainty, but importantly, "financial conditions remain expansionary, although they are gradually becoming less so in some countries". A further gradual decline in the unemployment rate is expected over the next couple of years to around 5 per cent. Wages growth remains low.

"But the peak in the housing construction cycle, uncertainty about the outlook for consumer spending, the weakening Sydney and Melbourne property markets, low inflation and wages growth and tight bank lending standards all argue against a rate hike". Lowe amended his language on China's economy in the statement, shifting from continuing to grow solidly to saying growth "has slowed a little". "This is likely to continue for a while yet, although the improvement in the economy should see some lift in wages growth over time". "The central forecast is for inflation to be higher in 2019 and 2020 than it is now".

As China is Australia's biggest trade partner, news that Chinese markets were performing more strongly on Tuesday, as well as the day's weakness in the US Dollar (USD), left the Australian Dollar more appealing. This is largely due to reduced demand by investors as the dynamics of the housing market have changed. "There is competition for borrowers of high credit quality". In short, the RBA remains on hold.

"Taking account of the available information, the Board judged that holding the stance of monetary policy unchanged at this meeting would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time", the bank said in a statement.

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